Every Tuesday, the waiver wire fills up with the same mistake. A receiver catches two touchdowns on three grabs, and half the league spends its top priority on him. Two weeks later he is back on the wire.

The problem is not the player. It is the stat. Touchdowns are among the least stable numbers in football from week to week. They depend on field position, play calling inside the 10, and a fair amount of luck. What carries over is opportunity: how often a player is the intended target, and where on the field those targets happen.

Three numbers worth more than a touchdown

Target share. The percentage of team pass attempts aimed at a player. A receiver seeing a quarter of his team's targets will produce over a season, even through quiet weeks. A receiver seeing one in ten is living on borrowed time, no matter how many times he found the end zone.

Air yards share. Not all targets are equal. A deep target is worth several screens. Players with a big share of their team's air yards are the ones who break out when the efficiency catches up.

Red zone looks. If you want to predict touchdowns, do not count past touchdowns. Count targets inside the 20. That tells you who the offense trusts when the field shrinks.

How to use this on the wire

When two players are available, pick the one with the better opportunity profile, even if his box score was worse. A running back who handled most of the snaps and caught five passes in a loss is often a better add than the backup who vultured a goal-line score.

This also works in reverse. When a player on your roster scores in back-to-back weeks on light volume, that is your window to sell high.

Fantasy managers who win over a full season are rarely the ones who guessed the touchdowns right. They are the ones who kept rostering the players with the ball coming their way. Opportunity is boring. Boring wins leagues.